Thursday, September 27, 2018

Will Singapore property crash in the near future?

I was talking to my neighbour yesterday and was surprised that he rented a unit in my block, his reason was simple, he doesnt want to own any property now, he wants to keep his cash for now and wait for the right time to buy when the propery crash.
His observation was that the property market now has gone crazy and out of sync with the current economy.
So the million dollar question is ' Will the property market crash'?
I am not a economist so i cant answer this question. But i learnt a few valuable information from Propnex, and extract some information from the website and let readers decide.

1) Year 2018 saw the 1st cooling measure from the government. This was the first cooling measure after 5 years, the last was the TDSR in Yr 2013. Will this one cooling measure going to stop the property market from moving up?



2) Due to the limited land bids from the government, developers have been buying old properties for the past 3 years starting from Yr 2016. The aggressive enbloc saw a lot of enbloc owners flooding into the market to searching for new houses.





































3) Propery market is a cycle. After several years of downturn, in Yr 2006, it began 2 years of up swing of 102%, before the down cycle kicks in. In year 2008, there was a drop of 34% until Yr 2009.
In Yr 2009 onwards, it started a 5 years long cycle of uptrend which saw property market move up a staggering 91%. And this was the start of the 7 cooling measures from the government in an attempt to slow the market from continuing to move up further. Their program works after they introduce TDSR, and market drop by 18% from 2015 to 2016.
We are now in the 4Q of 2018, and we only witness the start of the uptrend. So how many more years will this market moves up before it drops again?

Conclusion
What i am trying to bring across is that this government had learned from the 1997 Asia crisis and the cooling measures is an attempt to minimise the damage as little as possible. They are discouraging buyers to over commit themselves financially, and only to buy within their means.
Even if property buyers are caught in property crash, they can still hold on to their property until the next upturn.


https://stackedhomes.com/blog/singapore-property-market-crash/

No comments:

Post a Comment